Open Thread: Rank the ’08 Senate Races

84 thoughts on “Open Thread: Rank the ’08 Senate Races”

1. 1. New Hampshire
   2. Louisiana
   3. Colorado
   4. Minnesota
   5. Oregon
   6. Virginia
   7. Maine
   8. South Dakota
   9. North Carolina
   10. Texas

   Explanations:

   In New Hampshire and Louisiana, its a matter of Senators hanging on perilously while the demographics of the state have changed dramatically.

   Colorado is still a swing state, and while Udall is a very strong candidate, his voting record is quite liberal. Colorado won’t be the slam dunk everybody thinks it is.

   Virginia will go up near the top of the list if the following two things happen: 1) Mark Warner jumps in, and 2) Jim Gilmore jumps in. Gilmore has already embarassed himself (and Virginia) on the national level, so I’m hoping he doesn’t do the same thing on the state level. If its Mark Warner vs. Tom Davis, Virginia is much less likely to change hands than the top three on my list. If Mark Warner doesn’t get in at all, its a likely GOP hold.

   I’ve never believed Susan Collins to be vulnerable, and I haven’t seen much indication thus far that she deserves to be higher on the list.

   If Johnson runs again in South Dakota, he’ll be the strong favorite, but so much can happen in the race that its impossible to take it off the map.

   After spot number 8, its really a toss-up, because no more seats are likely to change hands. Of all of them, the two most vulnerable are Dole and Cornyn.

2. 1. New Hampshire – Assuming Shaheen gets in, long gone folks.
   2. Colorado – Shaffer seems to be embarrassing himself and Udall seems to be cruising, I’d argue pick up.
   3. Louisianna – Personal popularity aside, John Kennedy has more. Landrieu is in trouble.
   4. Virginia – Warner or no Warner, Virginia has not seemed to mind voting for democrats lately. Kerry’s score in 2004 in Virginia was one of the most under reported stories of that cycle.
   5. Oregon – Shaping up to be the Ohio of 2008.
   6. Minnesota – Franken seems to be pulling all the right moves, he’s behind but hes steadily closing the gap as people see he is serious.
   7. Maine – Collins will be vulnerable . . . after the next year of being told how she is not like Snowe.
   8. Kentucky – “Obstructionist minority” “The sole reason we are in Iraq.” fair or not, these phrases will be yelled a lot in 2008 against McConnell.
   9. Texas – ok, so I got a little homstate bias going. Noriega has the resume to make this happen and Cornyn is not Kay Bailey. People here will respect her no matter what, yet they will have no idea who Cornyn is. Potential is out there.
   10. GRAB BAG! This is the what ifs. Nebraska, what if Hagel retires who jumps in? North Carolina, Will anyone step up? Idaho, does Craig resign? Alaska, does Stevens get indicted?

   Andrew Rice also is looking good, just we’ll have to see if Inhoffe says something else stupid or if the Okies will tolerate it. I’m also dropping Johnson since he announced his re-election bid; I doubt the Govenror will challenge him.

3. Okay, I’m tired of seeing LA and SD in all these rankings. Is it because people feel they need to have some balance? Do they think it’s too good to be true that the 10 most vulnerable seats are all Republican?

   Regarding LA, not only has Landrieu proven she can win in a non-Democratic year, she has shown she can fundraise.  Also, she can make a strong case it’s better to have a Senior Senator in the majority than a Freshman in the minority party.  As for SD, Johnson will win in a cakewalk.

   Now, as for the top 10…

   1.) New Hampshire – Regardless of Shaheen, the Blue Tide continues
   2.) Colorado – An open seat with a strong candidate and a Rep Wingnut
   3.) Virginia – Hopefully, Colorado, pt., an open seat with a strong candidate (Warner) and a Rep Wingnut (Gilmore)
   4.) Minnesota – I’m worried about Franken, but the Democratic tilt of the state and the disastrous Republican convention in MN will seal the deal
   5.) Oregon – Merkley wins. All those House Dems regret passing up the race.
   6.) Maine – This will be a nail-biter. But the Presidential year pushes it over the edge.
   7.) Kentucky – The Dems want payback for Daschle and they get it. The Craig situation plays on this one as I think some of the rumors about McConnell will be given a second look.
   8.) North Carolina – Grier Martin jumps in the race and Dole goes packing.
   9.) Nebraska – Hagel retires. Kerry nips the Rep. nominee
   10.) New Mexico – Domenici retires and a second-tier Dem eeks this out

   That still leaves a few good shots, too…
   11.) Texas – The immigration issue plays big in the Presidential, but has a backwards effect here.  Noriega steals enough Latinos to win
   12.) Oklahoma – Inhofe implodes and Okies like Andrew Rice.  (Added with Grier Martin, the Senate’s hotness goes up tenfold!)
   13.) Alaska – Stevens finally goes down. Welcome, Begich.
   14.) Idaho – Craig stays in office until 2008. LaRocco pulls off a miracle!

   1. And you are free to create your own top ten list that take into consideration your opinion on all of these matters.

      Mark Warner’s strength in this state is vastly overrated. Don’t get me wrong–its still high, but he’s not a god in this state, no matter what some people are telling others. I’ve gone through the reasons why Warner’s victory in 2001 can’t be duplicated in 2008, but here’s something else to consider about his high approval ratings. Look at the approval ratings of Governors in this country, and look at the approval ratings of Senators. Why is it, do you think, that Governors for the most part more popular than Senators, and in some cases, significantly so? Is it because those 50 people happen to be great and those 100 people happen to be horribly unpopular? Or do you think its because that people respond better to someone who is 1) closer to state issues, and 2) able to avoid divisive national politics?

      I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. Here are the factors that led to Mark Warner’s success in 2001:

      1) He ran against a mediocre opponent after a disastrous term from the previous Governor (Gilmore)
      2) He outspent his opponent 2-1.
      3) He had a base in Northern Virginia, where his opponent couldn’t compete
      4) He built up support in the conservative rural areas of the state

      Against Tom Davis, he can claim none of those advantages. And trust me, the last thing Tom Davis has to worry about, no matter what happens, is having enough money.

      Calling John Kennedy a “turn coat” doesn’t make him less of a candidate, and I for one don’t particularly worry about him losing re-election considering he doesn’t have an opponent, or at least any worth mentioning. But Kennedy is a top-tier challenger, and as I said in my original post, the demographics of the state have simply moved beyond Landrieu, like Sununu in New Hampshire and Santorum in Pennsylvania in ’06, and there’s little she can do to stop it. In addition to losing a bulk of her support, the state itself has become even more red, which will be seen even more clearly after Bobby Jindal wins the Governor’s race.

      As far as Colorado, I agree that Udall is a stronger candidate than Schaffer. My reason for putting New Hampshire and Louisiana above it is because there is little Sununu and Landrieu can do against top-tier opponents, because the pure numbers of their state say that they’ll lose. Its a much different picture in Colorado.

   2. While I guess trying to be fair, he is still showing his biases (and since he’s from Virginia, I think he personally wants to keep this race his).

      Personally, in races where there are no rumoured or only tepidly rumoured candidates (NM, NC, AK, LA, SD), it’s hard to rank them high at this point. This wouldn’t apply for states like VA, NH, NE and KY where the rumoured candidates have a 70%+ chance of announcing.

      1. While Louisiana is trending Red. Landrieu has a moderate voting record. She has crossover appeal (Breaux-lite).

         In New Hampshire- Sununu is a partisan ideologue like Santorum(PA).

         With regards to Virginia- Mark Warner reminds me of Evan Bayh in 1998. Bayh was a popular former Governor running for the US Senate. His GOP opponent was a mayor of a major city in Indiana- he is now head of a gun control organization-Paul Helmke.

          

      2. I’m not saying that Davis is going to have to worry about having money, I’m saying that Warner will be out-fundraising him, and you’ve got that reversed with who neutralizes whose support. Davis’s primary advantage is that he’s electable, he can win in Northern Virginia, but Warner stops that, and he’s hasn’t locked up conservatives in the rest of the state either. The Club for Growth’s attacks against him are already a sign that Davis will have some real trouble rallying conservatives to his cause. On the other hand, the Dems would be incredibly excited about Mark Warner running, Davis doesn’t have that same thing working in his favor.

         1. But, numerous other polls have shown Dole under 50%.

4. T-10. Nebraska-All about Hagel. I think he will retire. Then it becomes about Johanns and the Dem nominees. I’m not so worried about our side, I think either Kerrey or Fahey will run. Bt Johanns is definitely a much stronger candidate than Brunning.

   T-10. Alaska-If Begich gets in, he can definitely make this competitive. But we’re still talking about Alaska during a presidential year, and the most senior Republican. It will be a very uphill climb.

   9. North Carolina-It definitely says something that Grier Martin who is literally the 6th choice is polling only 6 points behind Dole. If he doesn’t get in it’ll definitely be one of the few dissapoints of Schumer’s tenure as DSCC chairman.

   8. South Dakota-All eyes are now on Mike Rounds since Johnson has announced he will run for re-election. Some of these second and third-tier candidates can make the race competitive because of the partisan makeup of the state. But only Rounds has a legit. shot at beating a healthy Johnson.

   7. Minnesota-That 49-42 poll was IMO huge for Franken. Because it showed that Minnesotans were willing to give Franken a fair shake and were not just dismissing him as some carpetbagging celebrity.

   6. Oregon-I’m a little less optimistic than some about this race. Merkley seems to be a fine candidate, but he’s still the third or 4th choice. Plus Gordon Smith is a very savvy, well financed candidate.

   5. Louisiana-What’s more important, party or power? That’s the essential question that will define who wins this race. John Kennedy if he wins will be the 99th or 100th senator in terms of seniority, but he is a Republican in a very Republican state. OTOH Landrieu is a Democrat but will be in her third term and will have a fair amount of seniority.

   4. Maine-Collins has to repudiate her war support. Otherwise, Allen will continue to beat her over the head with it, and he’ll ride that to the US Senate.

   3. Virginia-If Warner gets in, I don’t see how he loses. Davis would make it competitive, but he’ll lose.

   2. Colorado-This race is all about who can define their opponent. I like my chances a lot more with Udall.

   1. New Hampshire-Shaheen gets in, its a done deal. I still think Sununu loses to Marchand or Swett as well.

   1. for Senate races, and he even admits so. Early on in 2006 he still predicted a 1-3 seat pickup; he cites being too much of an optimist in 2004 as being the main reason for being a pessimist.

      Another cheap Republican tactic; twisting the meaning of the guys at OpenLeft. Bowers said that it’s completely insane now, but there ARE actually 15 potentially competitive Senate races; and even Republicans such as yourself have to admit that Idaho and Alaska have been made unsafe because of “personal” problems.

      Not to mention that you’re on the wrong side of the predicting scale of most REPUBLICANS, who, according to Bob Novak, are already predicting a net less of 4 seats.

      And, assuming Hagel retires, all 4 people that I named has the candidates more likely than not jumping in, especially Shaheen who has already stated that she is “70% in”.

   2. When he said “less than 1%” the rumors were running thick in Nebraska that he was strongly considering a run.

5. 1. New Hampshire
   —Obviously, this is assuming that Shaheen runs and that none of the second tiers decide to stick around for whatever vain reason, but even if one of those things happens, the Dem still has the edge.
   2. Virginia
   —The pressure for M. Warner to get in will be intense, and I think that he knows that if he doesn’t get in and the seat is held by Republicans, it will come back to haunt him in his future endeavors.  He could always pull a Corzine and appoint someone like Gov. Kaine or Rep. Moran.  I’m also guessing that Gilmore’s ego trip will continue and he’ll run, ergo destroying Republican chances for a pick-up by making this a bitter Moderate vs. Conservative primary, with moderates defecting to the Democrat if Gilmore’s the nominee and Conservatives refusing to vote if Davis is the nominee.
   3. Colorado
   —I think that people are being a bit overly optimistic about this one; I won’t be sold that this is as good as Udall’s seat until I see some polls saying so.  However, a Republican that no one wanted as the nominee against one of the strongest Dems in the state will likely make this a nail biter.
   4. Louisiana
   —Kennedy will probably shape up to be a strong candidate.  Landrieu’s one of the most conservative Senators in the Senate and she’s come from behind before, but Louisiana was already turning Red pre-Katrina (Bush won the state with 52.5% in 2000, but 56.7% in 2004), so it’s going to be difficult for her to overcome her state’s leanings.
   5. Minnesota
   —A Senator who won by a tragic fluke, Coleman’s luck will likely run out unless Iraq somehow becomes less of an utter disaster.  Franken is probably the best Democrat to beat him, but Ciresi could get the job done as well.
   6. Maine
   —It’s hard to imagine a pro-War Senator from such a blue state against a top-tier candidate like Allen winning in a presidential year.  Factors like personal popularity and otherwise Centrist leans will help her to an extent.
   7. Oregon
   —Republicans keep on thinking that they can make inroads here, so expect some coattail effects in play from the Republican presidential candidate, but that might actually hurt Smith seeing as the only thing keeping him from the top of this list is his somewhat anti-war voting record.
   8. South Dakota
   —A lack of top-tier challenger and general goodwill towards Johnson gives him an edge in what was expected to be a bitterly contested race.  Johnson still can never sleep too soundly in a state that Bush won by about 60% in both 2000 & 2004.
   9. Alaska
   —I’m assuming that Begich finally gets in and that Stevens hold on until the bitter end.  Stevens would still have the edge in this strongly Republican state, but you have to remember that Begich currently serves over around 40% of the state’s population as the mayor of Anchorage, a great foundation for success.  This race will fall off our radar in a day if Stevens is indicted or retires and is replaced by Sarah Palin or someone in her mold.
   10. Texas
   —The first nine seats just kind of fell into place, but picking number 10 was hard.  I went with Texas because of the energy that a Noreiga campaign could bring to the general election.  Noreiga’s military record should play well out there and give him some credibility on issues of the war over Cornyn.  In addition, he has the ability to energize Texas’ Hispanic population in way we haven’t seen before; especially on issues of immigration (consider the race last cycle in TX-23 to be a precursor of this possibility).

   In short: CO, LA, NH, and VA are all toss-ups.  MN, ME, OR are lean Rep.  SD is joined by AR and NJ as likely Dem.  AK & TX are joined by ID, KY, NE, NM, NC, OK, and TN as likely Rep.

   1. As Republicans proved in 2006, they don’t always care about the strongest general election matchup. Sometimes the most crazy Republican will do just fine. See: Ricketts, Pete.

      Johanns is going to have to wait until after the farm bill passes before he can resign as Ag. Secretary. Bruning will be continuing to build support among the Republican base. It’s a shrewd primary strategy: attacking Hagel to make himself the clear choice for those who don’t like Hagel. But it’s going to kill him if he gets to the general.

   2. Be weary of PPP polling in North Carolina. In addition to being IVR polling, which should always be taken with a grain of salt (whether its PPP, SurveyUSA, or Rasmussen), I have a serious problem with their head-to-head polling, because they don’t do the traditional initial ballot test. Instead, they give a brief biographical sketch about each candidate, identifying bullet points from their resume, and then ask who they would support. There’s a reason why most (if not all) other polling firms stick to an uninformed ballot test to gauge the strength of a candidate. Its more reliable, its more accurate, and its a more realistic way to judge how a voter will act when he steps into the voting booth in November.

6. 1. NH – Shaheen’s a sure thing, and Marchand should be able to win if she doesn’t run.

   2. CO – The travails of the Republicans in this state are hilarious.

   3. VA – If Mark Warner runs, he should win easily. If not, this race slides down the list.

   4. MN – I didn’t believe in Franken at first, but I’ve come around. And Coleman’s got lots of problems.

   5. ME – I don’t want to discount Collins, but Allen should make a very serious run.

   6. LA – Kennedy wil be getting into this race very late and without much money.

   7. OR – A lot like Maine.

   8. KY – Loooking more and more like this cycle’s biggest surprise.

   9. TX – Unless of course TX turns out to be this cycle’s biggest surprise (and given Cornyn’s weaknesses and Noriega’s strengths …).

   10. NC – Dole’s a terrible campaigner. But it would help if the Democrats had a candidate in the race.

   1. I disagree that Warner “stops” Davis’s strength in Northern Virginia. Warner may still win in Northern Virginia, but not by the same margins that Webb, Kaine, and Warner did when they won statewide. Competing in Northern Virginia for a Republican is like competing in California on a national level. Democrats need California to win. If anything, it forces Mark Warner to campaign there (something Allen could not, and therefore did not do against Jim Webb). And if Jim Gilmore doesn’t get into the race and Tom Davis has a clear path to the nomination, the Club for Growth won’t be a factor in the state.

7. 1. New Hampshire — This one is over and out. NH isn’t electing a Republican for national office for 20 years.

   — BIG BREAK HERE —

   2. Oregon — Oregon feels like it is moving blue very fast now. Merkley will crush his primary opponent and seems like a very strong candidate. I think Smith is dead, even though he has made all the right moves.

   3. Maine — Feels like Rhode Island 06. There may be nothing Collins can do, although the liberal interest groups (especially enviros) may rescue her by endorsing.

   4. Colorado — I live here and have done Dem politics for ages now. Watch out people. This one is NOT a done deal. Udall’s appeal is overrated and Schaffer, though in fact a right wing crazy, doesn’t come off that way in person. He’s pretty smooth. And there are still 7 points worth more R’s than D’s here and the R party has recovered from its recent funk. Don’t forget that. If Schaffer can raise enough bucks to paint Mark as a Boulder liberal, this one is a 1-2 point barn-burner.

   5. Louisiana — Dems have won in tougher places, but not many. If Kennedy has a pulse this is a less than 5 point race.

   6. Virginia — I don’t buy Warner. The record of ex-govs running for Senate isn’t great (except apparently in Indiana and Nebraska) and Warner, after all, only won one race, and that against a very weak opponent. Webb would not have won last year if macaca didn’t happen. And above all, I don’t think Warner is running (he wants VP).

   7. Alaska — I DO buy Alaska however. That state is changing HARD politically, on every level below presidential (like, and very simililary to, Montana). They are ready for someone new and there is a Dem bench there. If the mayor of Anchorage runs, this is a tight one.

   8. Minnesota — Don’t know why, but a little bird tells me Franken will win the primary then get beat in a huge disappointment. Don’t know what it is about that state.

   — BIG BREAK —

   9. Nebraska — Kerrey will not be a strong candidate, if he runs. And either Johanns or the AG will be on the R side. I don’t see us winning here.

   10. South Dakota — Don’t see how the R even runs a race here. The only reason this is on the list is because Johnson in the end might not run.

   Others: Idaho — forget about it … LaRocco is seriously damaged goods and the R’s have a decent bench here. Kentucky — hard to imagine, but if Iraq continues to get worse, who knows. Oklahoma — have heard great things about our candidate here, and nobody, not even the party crazies, likes Inhofe, who is dumb as a post. But I reserve judgment until I know more.

8. The detailed explanations of my rankings is available at CampaignDiaries.com. They’re worth a look.

   My top 10:
   1. New Hampshire
   2. Colorado
   3. Virginia
   4. Oregon
   5. Maine
   6. Minnessota
   7. Virginia
   8. Nebraska
   9. South Dakota
   10. New Mexico

9. First I want to give my rankings:

   1. New Hampshire
   2. Colorado
   3. Virginia
   4. Louisiana
   5. Minnesota
   6. Oregon
   7. Maine
   8. South Dakota
   8. North Carolina
   8. Texas

   I believe that losing South Dakota is the worst-case scenario for Democrats, but it’s not the worst case for Republicans to lose either Texas or North Carolina (keep in mind, if they’re losing either of those two states, it likely means that we’ve won everything from 1-5, so it would be starting from a net -4 loss anyways). I want to be careful about being over-optimistic with Virginia and Minnesota at the moment, but I’m forseeing at least a 3 seat victory in the senate for the Dems.

   The other thing I wanted to mention was this interesting thing from Stu Rothenberg: http://rothenbergpol…

   Ignore the July 27 on the tag line, this has clearly been updated to reflect the open seats in Idaho and Virgina.

   Two things I notice, are that Rothenberg gives toss-up status to three Republican seats (the two open seats in Colorado and Virginia respectively and Sununu in New Hampshire). The other note-worthy thing is that Rothenberg puts Domenici, Stevens, Johnson, Hagel, and McConnell as being “Clear-Advantage Incumbent Party”. Now, most of these aren’t suprising, but McConnell, before this, has pretty consistantly been placed in the “Safe” category, this is definitely a big deal.

10. 1) New Hampshire (Assuming Shaheen gets in… although even if she doesn’t, this is still probably a toss-up)
    2) Colorado (I’d still call this lean D, but not as likely to be a Santorum-style demolition derby like Shaheen/Sununu would be)
    3) Virginia (Assuming Mark Warner gets in… otherwise, this drops down to 9 or 10 on the list)
    4) Louisiana (More a reflection of changed demographics than Landrieu’s weaknesses or Kennedy’s strengths)
    5) Nebraska (Assuming Chuck Hagel bails out and we’re looking at a Kerrey/Bruning race. Kerrey/Johanns would be tougher and I’d move it down a few spots. If Hagel stays in and/or Kerrey doesn’t show, this isn’t even on the list.)
    6) Minnesota (Rated higher than OR or ME because Coleman was elected accidentally once, while Smith and Collins have won convincingly twice)
    7) Oregon (Glad to see Smith’s approval ratings dropping precipitously, but this will go down to the wire… if Sizemore decides to primary him from the right, that would be a big help)
    8) Maine (I’m not confident here because Collins has such high approval ratings; we’ll have a lot of mind-changing to do)
    9) Alaska (Assuming a Ted Stevens/Nick Begich race. If a generic R is running because Stevens retires/goes to jail/head explodes, I’d move it off the list.)
    10) New Mexico (Kind of a wild card, because it’s unclear who the Dems will field, whether Domenici will retire, whether the replacement GOP nom will be Wilson or Pearce or someone else, and if Domenici sticks around, whether he’ll get more USA scandal blowback and whether he’ll become more visibly senile)

    I’d rotate in Kentucky or Texas if any of the above pics needs to drop off the list.

    1. http://www.cookpolit…

       Cook updated his Senate rankings to reflect the open seats

11. 1. New Hampshire – John Sununu, R

    NH is one of the few states that’s been bluing rapidly since 2000. It was the only Bush state to switch to Kerry’s column in 2004, the same year John Lynch was elected governor. Then there was the unprecedentedly huge Democratic shift in 2006.
    A GOP telemarketing scandal every election year and the vast influx of Massachusetts voters who have moved to New Hampshire in the last ten years also doesn’t help the GOP. All things considered, Sununu is toast.

    2. Colorado – Open (Wayne Allard, R)

    Other commentators have covered the basics, but essentially the seat is Udall’s to lose.

    3. Alaska – Ted Stevens, R

    The meme throughout the early part of this decade was that
    most Alaskans realize that Stevens is crazy, and keep re-electing him solely for his power on the Appropriations Committee. Now that he’s no longer chairman of Appropriations, under an ethics cloud, AND potentially faced with a strong challenger, Stevens’ luck may finally have run out. This race strikes me as similar to Burns-Tester in 2006 (strong, popular Democrat in conservative but purpling state vs. crazy GOP incumbent), and, like Burns-Tester, it’s likely to go down to the wire.

    4. Louisiana – Mary Landrieu, D

    While the demographic shift toward the GOP is there, and exacerbated by Katrina, Landrieu enjoys fairly decent poll numbers and so far lacks a serious GOP opponent. If Ensign were even halfway competent at his job at the NRSC, I’d rank this a lot higher.

    5. Virginia – OPEN (John Warner, R)

    The VA-GOP is fractured over who should succeed John Warner, and appears headed for a bitter primary fight that’s sure to alienate some faction of the already depressed GOP base. Any strong Democratic candidate could take advantage of this to at least perform decently in an open seat race. Mark Warner could probably win under these circumstances, but it’s clear that he harbors presidential ambitions. If I were him, I wouldn’t go for Senate unless I intended to pull a Corzine. (Which would be dishonest enough to alienate the voters he needs to become governor again. It worked in NJ because NJ voters are so cynical about their politicians that anything’s possible.) This seat is well within the possibility of a D pickup, but not as much as the media seems to think.

    6. Minnesota – Norm Coleman, R
      Oregon – Gordon Smith, R

    These races are essentially similar – R incumbent in a relatively blue state fighting for survival. Coleman has weak approval ratings and comes from a traditionally DFL state, but also has weaker opposition. Smith has the advantage of being able to pretend he’s a “distinguished moderate” in his barely blue state (a meme that too many Oregonians are willing to buy), but Oregon is still very anti-Bush and anti-Iraq war, and this is the first time Smith’s incumbency will have been challenged by a strong opponent. Probably at least one of these races becomes a Democratic pickup.

    7. Maine – Susan Collins, R

    For all that people compare the campaign against Collins to Chaffee’s defeat in 2006, Collins has also made way fewer campaign mistakes. Tom Allen is a formidable opponent, but Maine voters are so unpredictable it’s not worth calling this race one way or the other until the polls have closed.

    8. Kentucky

    McConnell has a target three miles wide on his back from Democrats and Republicans alike. With the governor’s mansion almost certainly going blue, serious challenges to McConnell both in the primary and the general, an energized Netroots,
    and a DSCC eager for payback for Daschle, McConnell is seriously vulnerable.

    9. Oklahoma – James Inhofe, R

    Senate2008guru makes a good point – even Oklahoma can’t keep electing both Coburn AND Inhofe indefinitely, and Inhofe’s approval ratings are in the 40’s. If Andrew Rice runs a great campaign, this might be a sleeper. (Even Dan Boren would be a better Senator than Inhofe.)

    10. Idaho – Probably open (Larry Craig, R)

    Let me be honest – I don’t think any race in Idaho is going to be a Democratic pickup in a presidential year. However, this race does serve the purpose of forcing the nearly broke NRSC to divert money it doesn’t have away from better D pickup opportunities. Especially with the multiple-way schism within the ID-GOP over Craig’s successor, this could be enough of a race to give the GOP a scare. I’m not ranking this race based on likelihood of switching so much as on overall importance.

    Sub-10:

    AL (Jeff Sessions, R) – With Sparks, this would’ve been a competitive race. With Vivian Figures, Sessions will win, albeit likely by a smaller margin than he thinks he will.

    NE (Likely open – Chuck Hagel, R) – In a presidential year, most likely the craziest faction of the GOP (i.e Osborne) prevails in such a solidly red state.

    SD (Tim Johnson, D) – Johnson’s plucky survival story has made him essentially untouchable.

    Not on the list:

    NC (Liddy Dole, R) – This might be a fight, but Dole is such a weak incumbent that it’s worth including somewhere.

12. LEAN  Takeover
    1)New Hampshire- Assuming Jeanne Shaheen runs
    2)Colorado-OPEN
    3)Virginia-OPEN- Assuming Mark Warner runs
    Tossup
    4)Lousiana- Assuming John Kennedy runs
    5)Minnesota
    6)Nebraska- Assuming Hagel retires and Kerrey runs.
    Lean Retention
    7)Oregon-
    8)Maine
    9)North Carolina- Assuming Grier Martin runs
    10)Alaska or New Mexico

    1. Popular and I think knowing what we know now, Nelson would’ve defeated Johanns.

       An open seat is just a totally different dynamic.

13. I’m just sayin. Wait until you see a poll. My guess is right now, after accounting for differing name ID (which won’t be an issue when this race is over) this is a 5 point race. Schaffer has money, and Dick Wadhams, for all of his career-destroying disaster in Virginia, has never lost a statewide race in the West and CO is his home. Udall is not that strong. Don’t forget CO is still a +R state (by seven points or so by registration).

14. 1.Colorado
    2.New Hampshire (Sununu)
    3.Minnesota (Coleman)
    4.Virginia (if Warner runs)
    5.Maine (Collins)
    6.Smith (Oregon)
    7.North Carolina (Dole)
    8.Texas (Cornyn)
    9.Nebraska (if Hagel retires, moves up if Kerrey is the candidate)
    10.Kentucky (McConnell)
    11.New Mexico (Domenici)
    12.Oklahoma (Inhofe)
    13.Alaska (Stevens, possible retirement)
    14.Idaho

    Landrieu is the only Democrat who risks not being re-elected in 2008, provided the Dems don’t let Bush start a war with Iran. If Dems allow this, the party will split in two.

15. 1. Colorado
    Open seat.  Udall is better candidate than Schaffer.  National and state env better for Democrats.  Lean D.
    2. New Hampshire
    1st term unpopular incumbent.  National and state environment better for democrats.  Heavyweight D (Shaheen).  Lean D.
    3. Virginia
    Open seat.  Heavyweight D (Warner).  National env better for Democrats.  Divisive R primary with lesser known R (Davis) or less popular R (Gilmore) as the R candidate.  Lean D.
    4. Nebraska
    Open seat.  Heavyweight D (Kerrey or Fahey).  Divisive R primary (Bruning vs. Johanns) possible.  More likely Bruning is pushed aside for Johanns and we have heavyweight D against heavyweight R (Johanns) in a national env that favors Democcrats in a state that favors Republicans.  Tossup.
    5. Maine
    Maine & Oregon are basically the same state for this exercise.  2nd term popular Republican in bluish state in national environment that favors Democrats.  In fact Collins and Smith are the same age (55)  in states that have Portland as the largest city and both won with 49% of the vote in ’96 and about 60% in ’02.  Maine may be a marginally better pickup opportunity than Oregon because Allen is a tier 1 candidate who has been running longer but this still leans ever so slightly Republican.
    6. Oregon
    Maine & Oregon are basically the same state for this exercise.  2nd term popular Republican in bluish state in national environment that favors Democrats.  In fact Collins and Smith are the same age (55)  in states that have Portland as the largest city and both won with 49% of the vote in ’96 and about 60% in ’02.  Oregon may be a marginally worse pickup opportunity because Merkley is a tier 2 candidate who has been running for a slightly shorter time.  This still leans ever so slightly Republican.
    7.  Minnesota
    1st term not terribly popular Republican in a bluish state in a national environment that favors Democrats, Coleman should be in worse trouble than he is.  Franken and Ciresi have posted impressive fundraising numbers and actually poll decently.  The only reason I don’t put this higher is that neither has ever been elected to anything.  This still leans ever so slightly Republican.  In a wave election – and most are wave elections, 5-7 will all go the same way and if it’s a democratic wave they are going Democratic.
    8. Louisiana
    Sort of the mirror image of Maine & Oregon.  2nd term popular Democrat in a red state in a national environment that favors Democrats.  Kennedy is a tier 2 candidate (can you name the State Treasurer in any other state?  In your own?)  The wild card is how Katrina affects the demographics.  My sense is that although most of the folks who’ve left were likely to vote democratic if they voted, they were low-income and unfortunately, it is likely they never voted in large numbers anyway.  Lean Democrat until either the national environment gets worse for democrats or Kennedy posts impressive fundraising numbers or polling numbers.
    9. Alaska
    15th (J) term unpopular Republican in a Red State embroiled in scandal against a tier 1 democrat (Begich).  This seat is ripe for the picking in the current national environment but we haven’t won a senate seat in Alaska in a long long time.  Lean R
    10-12. Texas, North Carolina, Oklahoma
    All bright young democratic state legislators with compelling stories running against undistinguished 1st term Rs in red states.  Each will have to distinguish himself further in terms of $ and polls to step out from the crowd and will need to have a significant blue wave to carry him over but not impossible.  Likely Rs.
    13. Kentucky
    The Daschle comparison works except that federally this is a red state.  McConnell is unpopular at the moment and the state and national environment is not good for Rs right now in Ky, but he is a 4th term incumbent with a ton of $ and it looks like Stumbo is more of a Tier 2 candidate.  Likely R.
    14. South Dakota
    Popular 2nd term D in a red state in a national environment that favors Democrats.  Unless the Republicans find a candidate this is safe D.

    1. And that Ms. Chao is his beard.  Of course, these are all rumors (heard from people who do oppo research).  You be the judge.

16. 1. New Hampshire- the state has shifted too rapidly for poor Sen. Sununu to do anything about. He’s toast.
    2. Colorado- I think in a vacuum Udall wins this seat narrowly. I think in ’08, Udall wins with room to spare.
    3. Virginia- If Warner runs, this probably takes the #2 spot. If he doesnt, this is still a winnable race, but it will be much tougher.
    4. Louisiana- The New Orleans Democrats that helped give Landreiu a vary narrow win last time are gone. Kennedy is a credible opponent and Senate races always trend back towards the national scene (especially in Presidential years). This one is trouble.

    -BREAK-

    5. Oregon- I believe Merkley is a strong, aggressive candidate who will give Smith problems. But watch out for this one, Smith is very savvy and will do his best to convince everyone what a moderate he is (in fact, ditto the next 2).
    6. Maine- Allen is a strong candidate, and this race really is a lot like RI last year. But Rhode Island is the bluest state in all the land, 6% bluer than Maine, and 6% more of the vote would have saved Chafee. But is Collins as revered as Linc was?
    7. Minneosta- It pains me to put this race this low, and I have a hard time separating these three. I think if the national environment stays this good for us, we probably win all three. But Coleman is a clever guy, and its not hard to imagine his attack ads against Franken. The more any of these races become about individuals and not parties, the worse for us.

    -BREAK-

    8. Nebraska- This is only this high because I think Hagel will retire. If he does, this might go higher, if not this is off the board. Its a deep red state, but we have some top-tier challengers who could make a good run.
    9. Alaska- Look, I dont care how red a state is, when you have a senile, corrupt, fossil in office its a race to watch. If Begich enters the race, this could be really interesting. We nearly beat Bunning in ’04, we beat Burns in ’06… so every cycle we take a good whack at a red state Senator. I think Stevens’s ethical troubles arent going anywhere and this has a good chance to heat up.
    10. Idaho- I guess you just have to keep this on the list until you know what Craig is going to do. If Craig doesnt resign, then this might be even better.

    Notes about the rest:
    South Dakota- If Sen. Johnson could hold off John Thune in 2002- a great GOP challenger in a great GOP year- there’s no way he’s going to lose. Especially with emotional sympathy against presumably a second-tier candidate in a Democratic year. Forget it.
    Texas- I only like this race if Noriega wins, but even if he does, money is an enormous problem.
    North Carolina- I think Dole is vulnerable… can we get a challenger? please???
    Oklahoma- Bravo to Mr. Rice for jumping and being ready to wage a spirited campaign against crazy Inhofe. But its a very uphill climb, no matter how low those favorables are.
     

17. 1.  New Hampshire
    2.  Virginia
    3.  Colorado
    —
    4.  Minnesota
    5.  Oregon
    6.  Maine
    7.  Louisiana
    8.  Nebraska
    —
    9.  Texas
    10. Kentucky
    11. Alaska
    12. North Carolina
    13. Oklahoma
    14. South Dakota
    15. New Mexico

18. With Hagel retiring, there will be a battle now.
    I would say that the GOP will really be struggling to defend all of these seats.

    Alone the numbers game tells me that the DEM have the home court advantage here.

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